A special election by the House of Representatives in NY-19, widely regarded as the lead district, has resulted in a surprise Democrat victory for candidate Pat Ryan.
Planned Decision Desk HQ:
Decision Desk HQ projects Pat Ryan (D) is the winner of the special election for US House of Representatives District 19 in New York, defeating Marc Molinaro (R)#decision made: 11:32 PM EDT
Follow more results here: https://t.co/joiucISVxD
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) August 24, 2022
Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report also proclaimed the choice for the Democrats:
I’ve seen enough: Pat Ryan (D) defeats Marc Molinaro (R) in the #NY19 special choice. This is a big win for Dems in a leading Biden +1.5 district.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 24, 2022
NY-19 is a national lead district that has left Obama, Trump, and Biden in the last three presidential cycles. It’s a swing neighborhood. Democrats have held the current House seat since 2018, but Republicans spent heavily in the district flipping the seat to signal a red wave in November.
The Republican message in the district was Biden and inflation, and the Democratic message focused on Roe, liberty, and protecting democracy.
The most devastating part of the loss for Republicans is that it signals they have a messaging problem. When prices and inflation come down, the electorate isn’t as upset, and fighting it could prove highly ineffective.
Roe’s ouster motivated Democrats and led to the election, and history has shown that Democrats do very well when they show up for midterms.
The GOP’s red-wave fantasy is officially dead as Democrats undeniably gain momentum in the midterm elections.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House press pool and congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a bachelor’s degree in political science. His thesis focused on public policy with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and professional memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and the American Political Science Association